SS
Sixth Street Specialty Lending, Inc. (TSLX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered adjusted net investment income of $0.58 per share and GAAP net investment income of $0.62 per share; GAAP net income per share was $0.39. NII EPS beat S&P Global consensus ($0.62 vs $0.554), while total investment income modestly missed ($116.3MM vs $116.7MM). Management reaffirmed full-year adjusted ROE guidance of 11.5%–12.5% and highlighted quarterly earnings power of ~$0.50 per share absent spread impacts and additional nonaccruals .
- Board declared a Q2 2025 base dividend of $0.46 and a Q1 2025 supplemental dividend of $0.06; adjusted NAV per share was $16.98 after supplemental dividends. NAV declined to $17.04, driven by reversal of unrealized gains from paydowns/sales ($0.13/share) and widening credit spreads ($0.06/share) .
- Portfolio churn remained elevated (LTM churn ~28%); activity-based fee income was the highest since Q4 2021, including a ~$0.05/share Arrowhead prepayment fee that boosted NII. Non-accruals were stable at 1.2% of fair value; first-lien exposure remained high at 92.9% .
- Balance sheet strengthened: $300MM notes due 2030 issued and swapped to floating (SOFR + ~153 bps), revolver amended and extended to 2030 with lower drawn spread/undrawn fee; weighted average interest rate on debt fell to 6.4% (from 7.0% in Q4) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong NII performance and disciplined capital allocation: Adjusted NII $0.58 per share (GAAP $0.62), supported by elevated activity fees and lower interest expense as base rates declined. CEO: “we estimate that the quarterly earnings power of the business… is approximately $0.50 per share,” translating to ROE ~11.7% .
- Robust liquidity and liability management: Issued $300MM notes due 2030 and extended $1.525B of revolver commitments to March 2030 with improved pricing. CFO: “we swapped these fixed… notes to floating at a spread of SOFR plus 152.5 bps… [and] lowered the undrawn fee… weighted average maturity on our liabilities [is] 4.2 years” .
- Portfolio quality and non-sponsored origination: Non-accruals at 1.2% of fair value; 84% of new fundings originated outside the sponsor channel; weighted average spread on new commitments was 700 bps, materially wider than public BDC peers, supporting future returns .
What Went Wrong
- NAV per share decline: NAV fell to $17.04 (from $17.16) due to reversal of unrealized gains tied to realizations ($0.13/share) and widening credit spreads ($0.06/share) impacting fair value marks; adjusted NAV after supplemental dividend was $16.98 .
- Investment income modestly below consensus: Total investment income of $116.3MM was slightly below S&P Global consensus, with management citing lower interest rates and lower dividend income versus Q4 .
- Spread compression on new investments and macro headwinds: Weighted average yields declined slightly (12.5% → 12.3% at amortized cost), with management reiterating discipline amid tight spreads and cautioning that tariff- and deglobalization-related macro risks could pressure valuations and growth over time .
Financial Results
Q1 2025 vs consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Year-over-year comparison (Q1)
KPIs and portfolio composition
Activity
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO on earnings power and NAV bridge: “we estimate that the quarterly earnings power… is approximately $0.50 per share… Of the $0.22 per share difference between net investment income and net income, only $0.05 per share was credit… $0.11 per share… realizations… $0.06 per share impact from widening credit spreads” .
- President on originations: “In Q1, 84% of new fundings are originated outside the sponsor channel… weighted average spread… 700 basis points” .
- CFO on balance sheet: “we issued $300 million of… notes… swapped… to floating at… SOFR plus 152.5 bps… amended our $1.675 billion secured credit facility… extended… to March 2030… lowered the undrawn fee” .
- Macro stance: “we believe there is limited direct risk from [tariffs] on our portfolio… majority… software and services… average loan-to-value… 41%” .
Q&A Highlights
- Capital raising philosophy unchanged with new ATM: “no changes… we will raise capital when accretive to NAV and ROE; ATM is a lower-cost tool, not an asset-gathering approach” .
- M&A cycle skepticism: “do I think there’s going to be a whole bunch of noninvestment-grade M&A in 2025? No… maybe 2026” .
- Spillover income and distributions: Estimated spillover income ~$1.31/share; not planning capital returns now given leverage, excise-tax arbitrage, and desire to keep capacity in volatility .
- Liability-side resilience: Banks risk-off stance expected to have limited impact given revolver extension and prefunding of maturities; net interest margin sensitivity hedged via swaps .
- Credit stability: No material migrations in risk ratings; limited direct tariff exposure identified and analyzed name-by-name .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 NII EPS beat consensus by ~$0.07 ($0.62 vs $0.554). Management attributed outperformance to elevated activity-based fees (notably Arrowhead prepayment ~$0.05/share) and lower interest expense from declining base rates .
- Total investment income slightly missed consensus ($116.3MM vs $116.7MM), primarily due to lower interest/dividend income in the quarter as rates declined, partially offset by higher fee income .
- Forward consensus indicates moderate sequential normalization of NII EPS and investment income across Q2–Q3 2025; management reaffirmed full-year adjusted ROE target (11.5%–12.5%), suggesting a durable earnings profile under current conditions . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- NII EPS strength and disciplined underwriting led to a notable EPS beat; expect near-term normalization toward ~$0.50/share quarterly earnings power absent one-off fees and spread impacts .
- Liability-side actions are accretive: 2030 notes swapped to floating and a cheaper, longer-dated revolver reduce funding costs and extend duration, supporting NIM resilience if base rates decline .
- Elevated repayments and fee income are a positive for the near term; watch activity cadence in Q2 where management expects balance sheet to be flat to slightly down, with leverage maintained within a disciplined range .
- NAV headwinds from spread widening are mark-to-market and should unwind as assets pay off/mature, but macro volatility may keep valuation marks choppy; this is a key driver for stock narrative near earnings prints .
- Portfolio risk remains contained: non-accruals low at 1.2% and first-lien concentration high (92.9%); limited direct tariff exposure (~2% of FV) mitigates near-term macro policy risks .
- Dividend visibility is solid: base dividend maintained at $0.46 with supplemental payout aligning with over-earning, underpinned by adjusted ROE guidance and spillover income cushion .
- Tactical positioning: expect continued preference for non-sponsored and complex opportunities with wider spreads; monitor spread dynamics in private credit vs BSL markets for deployment timing and potential yield uplift .
Segment/Portfolio Composition (for reference)
Notes: All figures GAAP unless noted. Adjusted metrics remove impact of accrued capital gains incentive fees, as defined by the company . Values retrieved from S&P Global where estimates are used.*